This La Liga season, the intrigue of the fight for the championship continues after the completion of the first round of 19 rounds. In the fight for the title, the main contenders are Real Madrid and Girona. Despite the fact that Barcelona is 7 points behind the leaders, it does not lose its chances of joining the fight for first place. The second round is ahead, which promises to be exciting and tense. At the moment, the leaders of La Liga are Real Madrid and Girona, with 48 points each from 19 matches. Qualification for the Champions League is tentatively held by these teams, as well as Atlético Madrid, which has 38 points from 19 games, and Barcelona, which has 41 points after the first round. Athletic are in the race for Europa League qualification with 38 points from 19 games, while Real Sociedad are fighting for a place in the Conference League with 32 points from 19 games. At the bottom of the table are the teams in the relegation danger zone: Cadiz with 15 points from 19 games, Granada with 11 points after the first round and Almeria with just 5 points from 19 matches.
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What to expect from Barcelona?
At the beginning of the new year, Barcelona found itself in third place in the La Liga table, 7 points behind the leading teams Real Madrid and Girona. Coach Javi Hernandez notes the need to strengthen the defense and improve the attacking game. Barça’s plans have not materialized this season as they have found it difficult to beat lesser opponents. The team sought to improve ball control, which led to problems in defense. Results from 19 matches show that Barcelona conceded more goals (22) compared to the previous season (20 goals in 38 games). However, it is important to note that no team in the top 5 European leagues has missed more chances in recent games. Although Barcelona scored 36 goals in the league, their expected result (xG) was 41.38, a difference of -5.38. Compared to Girona (+7.86), Real Madrid (+7.12) and Atlético Madrid (+4.95), Barça is far behind its xG. Robert Lewandowski was especially influential for the Catalans’ statistics, scoring eight goals with an xG of 11.66.
Xavi Hernandez will likely take solace in Barcelona’s ability to create chances in attack. That said, January signing Vitor Roque could prove to be an important addition to the forward line. The Brazilian striker was acquired with the aim of bringing more goals to the team, competing with Robert Lewandowski and possibly becoming a long-term option to replace the aging Polish striker.
What to expect from Real Madrid?
Real Madrid’s season began under difficult circumstances due to serious injuries to important players. The loss of Thibaut Courtois and Eder Militao to cruciate ligament injuries in August had a major impact on the team. They will never return to the field until the end of the season. December also saw a new blow: David Alaba’s injury. Coach Carlo Ancelotti expressed surprise at such a series of severe injuries in such a short period of time. Despite these difficulties, a victory over Alaves at Christmas saw Real top the La Liga table for the New Year, even level with Girona on points.
In the absence of Militao and Alaba, Rudiger is showing the best form of his Real Madrid career. Ahead of Madrid’s first match in 2024 against Mallorca, it is unclear who will take his partner’s place in central defence, with Nacho, the only centre-back, suspended. Perhaps midfielder Aurélien Tchouameni, whose return from a foot injury promises to be an important reinforcement in the new year, will be in contention for the full-back role. Eduardo Camavinga, Arda Guler and Vinicius Junior are also expected to return, which will certainly benefit the team. The news of Ancelotti’s contract extension will add an emotional boost, especially given early rumors of his possible departure to join the Brazil national team.
Forecasts
The situation is tense this La Liga season. Real Madrid feels the pressure and, as a result, shares first place with Girona. Barcelona are struggling with injuries and Atlético Madrid are inconsistent. Such chaos opens the door for a new team, and Girona is ready to take advantage of this opportunity. Although Girona are showing consistency in their play, they are still far from fully confident of winning.
Opta’s ratings suggest Real Madrid have a 90% chance of winning the title, but Girona have a 44% chance of finishing in the top two. Their confidence in the top 4 is very high – 89% probability according to Opta. Although the title chances are not that great, Girona can still continue to impress with their play and ambition.
